Activities
Assessing the Variability of Extreme Weather Events and Its Influence on Marine Accidents along the Northern Coast of Tanzania.
Abstract
The marine accidents are among the main components of the Zanzibar
Disaster Management Policy (2011) and the Zanzibar Blue Economy Policy
(2020). These policies aimed to institute legal frame works and
procedures for reducing both the frequency of marine accidents and their
associated fatalities. These fatalities include deaths, permanent
disabilities and loss of properties which may result into increased
poverty levels as per the sustainable development goal one (SDG1) which
stipulates on ending the poverty in all its forms everywhere. Thus, in
the way to support these Government efforts, the influence of climate
and weather on marine accidents along Zanzibar and Pemba Channels was
investigated. The study used the 10 years (2013-2022) records of daily
rainfall and hourly wind speed acquired from Tanzania Meteorological
Authority (TMA) (for the observation stations of Zanzibar, Pemba, Dares
Salaam and Tanga), and the significant wave heights data, which was
freely downloaded from Globally Forecasting System (GFS-World model of
13 km resolution). The marine accident records were collected from TASAC
and Zanzibar Maritime Authority (ZMA), and the anecdotal information
was collected from heads of quay and boat captains in different areas of
Zanzibar. The Mann Kendal test, was used to determine the slopes and
trends direction of used weather parameters, while the Pearson
correlations analysis and t-tests were used to understand the
significance of the underlying relationship between the weather and
marine accidents. The paired t-test was used to evaluate the extent to
which weather parameters affect the marine accidents. Results revealed
that the variability of extreme weather events (rainfall, ocean waves
and wind speed) was seen to be among the key factors for most of the
recorded marine accidents. For instance, in Pemba high rainfall showed
an increasing trend of extreme rainfall events, while Zanzibar has shown
a decreasing trend of these events. As for extreme wind events, results
show that Dar es Salaam and Tanga had an increasing trend, while
Zanzibar and Pemba had shown a decreasing trend. As for the monthly
variability of frequencies of extreme rainfall events, March to May
(MAM) season was shown to have the highest frequencies over all stations
with the peaks at Zanzibar and Pemba. On the other hand, high frequency
of extreme wind speed was observed from May to September with peaks in
June to July, and the highest strength was observed during 09:00 to
15:00 GMT. Moreover, results revealed an increasing trend of marine
accidents caused by bad weather except during November. Also, results
showed that bad weather conditions contributed to 48 (32%) of all 150
recorded accidents. Further results revealed significant correlation
between the extreme wind and marine accidents, with the highest strong
correlation of r = 0.71 (at p ≤ 0.007) and r = 0.75 (at p ≤
0.009) at Tanga and Pemba, indicating the occurrence of more marine
accidents at the Pemba channel. Indeed, strong correlation of r = 0.6
between extreme rainfall events and marine accidents was shown in Pemba,
while the correlations between extremely significant wave heights and
marine accidents were r = 0.41 (at p ≤ 0.006) and r = 0.34 (p
≤ 0.0006) for Pemba and Zanzibar Channel, respectively. In conclusion,
the study has shown high influence between marine accidents and bad
weather events with more impacts in Pemba and Zanzibar. Thus, the study
calls for more work to be undertaken to raise the awareness on marine
accidents as a way to alleviate the poverty and enhance the sustainable
blue economy
Skills
As a Meteorologist i have a deep knowledge of weather and climate that i can perform various activities in weather observation both marine and land and weather forecast in marine and land surface. Furthermore i can perform various task on weather data analysis and management using various tools like R-Programming, ArcGIS,SPSS etc.
Comment(s)
My profile fit to be part of August events therefore the committee will look forward in accepting my application.